Bank of Scotland: Business confidence rose after vaccine roll-out

Fraser Sime

Confidence rose 29 points month-on-month to -9% during December, following the start of the roll-out of the Covid-19 vaccine. The figures were calculated prior to the latest lockdown announcement.

Scottish firms’ optimism towards the economy increased by 38 points month-on-month to -12%, while confidence in their own business prospects rose 20 points to -7%. Together, this gives a headline confidence reading of -9%.

Businesses’ hiring intentions showed that a net balance of 33% of businesses in Scotland expect to reduce staff levels over the next year, down 10 points on last month.

The Business Barometer questions 1,200 businesses monthly and provides early signals about UK economic trends both regionally and nationwide.

Across the UK, overall confidence saw its largest monthly increase for more than four years in December, following vaccine progression announcements. Confidence climbed by seventeen points to -4% in November to -4%. Economic optimism jumped 23 points to -5%, while firms’ confidence about their trading prospects increased 11 points to -3%.

All 12 UK nations and regions saw a rise in overall confidence during December. The most marked improvements were reported in Scotland (up twenty-nine points to -9%); the South West (up twenty-two points to 5%) and the West Midlands (up twenty-two points to 4%). The North East, South West and West Midlands all moved into net positive territory for the first time since March this year.

The South West recorded highest confidence at 5%, followed by the West Midlands and South West, each at 4%. The North West had the lowest confidence during December at -13%, despite confidence increasing month-on-month by 15 points.

Fraser Sime, regional director for Scotland at Bank of Scotland Commercial Banking, said: “To see an increase in the confidence of Scottish businesses is a step in the right direction as we come to the end of what has been a very difficult year. The roll-out of the vaccine should buoy spirits further as it helps to bring light to a Covid-19 exit strategy, but this optimism could falter in coming months with continued uncertainty over lockdown restrictions.

“Whatever the new year brings, we’ll continue to be by the side of businesses across Scotland, as we all work together to support the country’s recovery from the pandemic.”