Private sector suffers sharpest slowdown in nearly four years - BoS

The fall, as revealed by latest data from Bank of Scotland, stemmed from a drop in new business intakes, the sharpest reported for 47 months.

Despite backlogs of work continuing to deteriorate, workforce numbers stabilised during the month, ending a seven-month sequence of job shedding.

The seasonally adjusted headline Bank of Scotland PMI - a single-figure measure of the month-on-month change in combined manufacturing and services output - fell to a four-month low of 49.2 during July (down from 50.5 in June). The return to contraction territory was broad-based across manufacturers and service providers, after both recorded declines in their business activity.

Demand for Scottish goods and services deteriorated at the sharpest pace for nearly four years during July.

Moreover, the decline ended a three-month period of growth. Although new business levels were lowered at a muted pace in Scotland’s service sector, new order volumes at goods producers contracted at the sharpest rate since September 2012.

Meanwhile, employee numbers stabilised in July, ending a seven-month sequence of decline. According to anecdotal evidence, manufacturers linked the decline to improved production efficiency.

Scotland’s private sector companies left their selling prices broadly unchanged during July, having lowered them marginally in June. Meanwhile, latest survey data highlighted a further increase in average cost burdens in Scotland’s private sector economy. The rise continues a trend which has been observed since February.

Graham Blair, regional director, SME Banking Scotland said: “The start of the third quarter was challenging for Scottish private sector firms, as declining demand conditions knocked the economy back into contraction during July. New business levels fell at the sharpest pace for nearly four years, with the decrease across both manufacturers and service providers.

“However, it is encouraging to see employment levels stabilise.

“Following the outcome of the EU Referendum it is still too early to understand the full impact for businesses across Scotland but we are ready to support them so that they are well positioned to meet any challenges ahead.”