‘No deal’ Brexit to cost Scottish economy £14bn a year by 2034 – CBI Scotland

Tracy Black

The study reveals how Scotland could be among the areas of the UK significantly exposed to the economic fallout from leaving the EU without a deal with an estimated annual loss of output worth £14 billion by 2034.

This figure is more than to the annual public spending on hospitals, GP surgeries and other health services in Scotland. Such a significant shortfall would hit people’s jobs, livelihoods and living standards.

Manufacturing activity is particularly important in Scotland, and the agri-food sector, which employs thousands, is likely to be severely impacted as it is particularly exposed to the risk of higher tariffs and trade costs.

With nearly half of Scottish goods exports going to the EU, any increased trade friction, added costs or delays would hit the region particularly hard.

Ed Monaghan, chief executive officer of Scottish employer Mactaggart and Mickel, said: “For some months now, the uncertainty around the UK’s departure from the EU has resulted in a lack of confidence around our own business investment plans and more importantly to our customers when buying one of our new homes.

“Like most businesses, the prospect of leaving the EU with no-deal is unimaginable. Not because we are able to predict the likely impact better than anyone else. Put simply; a wait and see strategy will most likely engulf decisions, from business investment to individual purchases, invoking a national pause on activity and making the resulting impact on our economy easy to predict.”

Tracy Black, CBI Scotland director, said: “CBI Scotland members are clear: if the new approach to finding a Brexit deal continues to be a game of who blinks first, the whole economy will pay the price.

“The deadlock will only be broken by a genuine attempt by all politicians to find consensus and compromise, not stick to rusting red lines and political conditions. Scotland is not – and cannot be – ready for no deal.

“The projected impact on our economy would be devastating and while business will do all it can to reduce some of the worst aspects, a no deal scenario is unmanageable.

“The message from CBI Scotland to our politicians is clear – we must see compromise or the whole country faces the unforgivable prospect of a disorderly Brexit which will affect jobs and livelihoods in Scotland for decades to come. It’s time to put prosperity before party politics and dogma.”