David Clancy, portfolio manager of abrdn’s Future Raw Materials ETF, argued that many mineral markets facing declining ore grades, a shortage of new discoveries, long development timelines and geopolitical constraints. He highlighted that demand was being driven by electrification, grid investment, robotics and AI data centres.

He claimed this will result in a sixfold expansion in mineral needed to build these products with a deficit in copper of more than 30% by 2035, citing data from Jeffries, which showed up to 80% of humanoid robots were made from metals. 

Aberdeen said its figures draw on sources including the International Energy Agency, S&P Global and J.P. Morgan, alongside its own internal research. Long-range forecasts of this kind vary widely between analysts and depend heavily on assumptions about technology, recycling and substitution.

Commodity “supercycle” forecasts in the 2000s were followed by a prolonged slump in prices and mining shares after 2011. Lithium prices also fell sharply from their 2022 peak, showing how quickly a shortage narrative can reverse when new supply arrives or demand disappoints.

The fund holds mining and materials company shares rather than the metals themselves, which exposes investors to company-specific risks such as cost overruns, project delays, political interference and management decisions, as well as to commodity prices.

Clancy said: “The case for future raw materials would be far less compelling if supply could respond quickly to higher demand. The supply response, however, looks increasingly difficult and many critical mineral markets face a combination of declining resource quality, a shortage of new discoveries, long development timelines and growing geopolitical constraints. The result is a supply base that is struggling to keep pace with rising demand. 

“We see this as an opportunity, and are accessing the asset class through equities as an effective way to participate.  While commodity exposure is largely driven by spot price movements, well-positioned companies can create value through production growth, cost discipline, project execution, balance-sheet strength, dividends and mergers and acquisitions.  As a result, equities can provide a broader and potentially more durable return profile. 

“In our view, this is not a tactical, cycle-timing trade. It is a multi-decade structural opportunity, comparable in scale and duration to the oil boom of the 20th century or the technology cycle of the 21st century.” 

The fund, launched in May 2025, has returned about 24% over the past year, according to data, but has fallen almost 13% over the past six months. It manages £28.8m and has an ongoing charge of 0.45%. Past performance is no guide to future returns