Geopolitical shifts power Aberdeen’s ‘Future’ ETFs through debut year
Jamie Mills O'Brien – Co-manager of the abrdn Future Supply Chains UCITS ETF
Two of Aberdeen Group’s ETFs, abrdn Future Supply Chains UCITS ETF and abrdn Future Raw Materials UCITS ETF, have reached their first anniversary, with both strategies delivering strong absolute and relative returns within their respective Morningstar categories and reinforcing their position as forward-looking, structural allocations.
The active ETFs are designed to capitalise on two themes driving profound change across the global economy – the re-shaping of global supply chains and the transformation in demand for raw materials.
Their performance since launch reflects the powerful tailwinds behind these themes, though Aberdeen is keen to stress that markets do not move in a straight line and that it would be unrealistic to expect such stellar returns to continue uninterrupted. The firm has confidence in the strength and durability of the underlying drivers.
The past twelve months have been characterised by a significant increase in geopolitical risk, disruption to international trade and continued demand for strategic raw materials.
Jamie Mills O’Brien, co-manager of the abrdn Future Supply Chains UCITS ETF, said the fund’s returns over the past year had been supported by rising policy support, increased defence and industrial spending, and an acceleration in the pursuit of supply chain resilience across sectors and geographies.
“What initially emerged as a post-pandemic adjustment is now evolving into a structural realignment of how and where goods are produced, the technology used to make them and the energy that powers them all,” he said.
He added that recent developments had only reinforced the trend, with geopolitics, energy security and trade fragmentation now structural features of the global economy, prompting companies and governments to diversify production and invest in domestic capabilities. Investment across reshoring, infrastructure and energy systems was likely to continue at pace, he suggested, as supply chains become increasingly driven by considerations of security, resilience and sustainability.
David Clancy, Quantitative Index Solutions director at Aberdeen, said demand for materials linked to electrification, renewables and digital infrastructure had driven the performance of the Future Raw Materials ETF since launch.
David Clancy
Mr Clancy said: “At the same time, supply has remained constrained as long lead times for new mining projects, combined with increasing permitting complexity, have limited the ability for supply to respond. This has created a supportive pricing environment.”
He continued: “From a portfolio perspective, copper and aluminium companies have been key contributors. Copper benefitted from supply disruptions and sustained demand, while aluminium saw strong price moves, particularly in March, driven by supply shortages linked to Middle East tensions.
“Looking ahead, the combination of structurally rising demand and constrained supply remains central. In a more geopolitically fragmented world, access to critical materials is becoming increasingly strategic, a dynamic that continues to support the long-term outlook for the companies we invest in.”
The Future Raw Materials ETF provides exposure to global companies supplying critical minerals essential for the energy transition, industrial growth and technological innovation, offering a focused way to access this structural theme. The strategy focuses on five key materials: copper, lithium, rare earths, aluminium and nickel, with smaller allocations to uranium and silver.
The Future Supply Chains ETF invests in global companies benefiting from the reshaping of global supply chains, including reshoring, localisation, and increased investment linked to national security and energy resilience.
The abrdn Future Supply Chains and Future Raw Materials ETFs sit within Aberdeen’s growing ‘Future’ range of thematic funds which includes the abrdn Future Real Estate UCITS ETF. These strategies blend quantitative investment research capabilities with the expertise of Aberdeen’s global equity team in a hybrid approach to offer exposure to megatrends that impact global markets in a low-cost, liquid wrapper.
Emily Smart
Emily Smart, chief product officer, Aberdeen Investments, said: “One year since the launch of the Future Supply Chains and Future Raw Materials ETFs, it is evident that many of the market dynamics that underpin the strategies have not only played out but accelerated.
“However, while these active ETFs are labelled thematic, they do not represent an attempt to tap into a short-term theme. Rather, they offer exposure to investment themes that we believe will have a significant impact on markets over the long-term.
“The performance of these two ETFs highlights the growing importance of these structural themes and the strength of our approach. For Supply Chains, a focus on key enablers such as defence and energy resilience has been pivotal; for Raw Materials, the strategic importance of critical minerals and diversification of their supply chains has come clearly into focus.
“Both strategies, which combine our expertise in both quantitative analysis and active management, offer genuine diversification relative to global markets, with recent geopolitical tensions further reinforcing their long-term relevance and opportunity set.”

