AGCC: Growth must become top priority to seize £17.5bn North Sea opportunity
Aberdeen & Grampian Chamber of Commerce (AGCC) has called for economic growth to become the top priority for both the UK and Scottish governments and urged ministers to seize the £17.5 billion North Sea investment opportunity currently on the table.
The call comes as the chamber’s latest Quarterly Economic Survey (QES), delivered in partnership with Gilson Gray LLP, shows North-east businesses under severe and sustained pressure, with weaker demand, weakening cash flow, reduced investment and subdued hiring intentions across the region.
Analysis suggests much of the region’s underperformance reflects the ongoing contraction in oil and gas, with falling confidence and delayed investment hitting supply chains, jobs and spending power across the North-east.
AGCC said the £17.5bn pipeline of potential North Sea investment – an offer made directly to Chancellor Rachel Reeves by operators earlier this month – demonstrates that growth can be unlocked quickly if the right policy choices are made, with major benefits for jobs, energy security, supply chains and public finances.
The latest QES survey reveals that just 15% of North-east firms reported increased domestic sales in the first quarter of 2026, compared with 32% across the UK. Almost half expect sales or orders to decline in the months ahead, underlining the fragile state of regional demand.
Financial pressure is also intensifying. Almost half of businesses in Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire (46%) reported declining cash flow over the past three months – the highest level since 2021 and substantially worse than the UK average of 32%.
At the same time, firms continue to face stronger cost pressures than elsewhere in the country. Labour costs remain the single biggest challenge, cited by 86% of respondents, alongside utilities and raw materials. Taxation remains the leading barrier to growth, while concern over business rates has surged sharply following the latest revaluation process.
The tougher trading environment is now feeding directly into business decisions on jobs and investment. Just 10% of North-east firms increased staffing in Q1, while almost a quarter reduced headcount. Looking ahead, more firms expect to cut jobs than grow their workforce – in marked contrast to the wider UK picture.
Just 29% of North-east businesses expect turnover to improve over the next 12 months, compared with 49% nationally. Only 22% expect profitability to improve, while 43% believe profits will worsen – highlighting a substantial confidence gap between the region and the rest of the UK.
The survey also points to deep frustration with public policy. Businesses overwhelmingly believe that neither the UK government nor Scottish Government has enabled economic growth in the North-east over the past five years, while almost three quarters say Scotland’s current business rates system is not fit for purpose.
Russell Borthwick, chief executive of Aberdeen & Grampian Chamber of Commerce, said: “This latest survey continues to tell a cautionary and concerning story of the North-east economy, with results once again showing a clear and growing gap between our region and the rest of the UK.
“While businesses across the country are facing headwinds, the scale of divergence we are seeing here points to something structurally different. Weak demand, worsening cash flow, lower investment and falling employment are not isolated indicators – together they paint a picture of a regional economy under sustained pressure.
“That is why growth must now become the top priority. Government should be doing everything possible to unlock investment, strengthen confidence and create jobs. With £17.5bn of potential North Sea investment reportedly ready to go, ministers have a major opportunity in front of them. Grabbing that opportunity would support employment, boost supply chains, improve energy security and generate substantial value for the wider UK economy.
“The North-east has the talent, capability and entrepreneurial strength to thrive. What it needs now is a policy environment that backs growth and recognises the strategic importance of this region to Scotland and the wider UK economy.”
Findlay Anderson, partner and head of corporate at Gilson Gray LLP, sponsors of the QES, added: “These findings show businesses operating in an increasingly difficult environment, where caution is replacing confidence and resilience is being tested.
“The North-east remains one of the UK’s most important economic regions, with world-class strengths in energy, technology and international trade. But without greater certainty and a more competitive operating environment, there is a real risk that investment and opportunity will continue to flow elsewhere.
“Rebuilding confidence and creating the conditions for growth must now be a priority.”
The Quarterly Economic Survey, delivered locally by Aberdeen & Grampian Chamber of Commerce and nationally coordinated by the British Chambers of Commerce, is recognised by the UK government, HM Treasury and the Bank of England as a key indicator of business performance and sentiment.

