Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust managers praised for harnessing ‘China’s revival’
Linda Lin, head of BG's China equities team
Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust’s portfolio managers Sophie Earnshaw and Linda Lin have been praised for making the most of “China’s revival”, as the trust delivered a net asset value (NAV) total return of 35.1% over the three years to November 5, 2026.
Research by analysts at Kepler Trust Intelligence highlighted that the trust’s performance was almost “15 percentage points” ahead of its benchmark, the MSCI China All Shares Index.
Kepler noted that Chinese trusts have been struggling, owing to the spotlight on Korean and Taiwanese semiconductors, while “domestic property and consumer worries resurfaced”.
The trust’s 8.9% fall in NAV was still ahead of the index’s 14.7% decline in the year to November 5, 2026. The analysts praised the trust’s “private book”, citing the performance of companies such as TikTok owner ByteDance and RedNote, which were revalued upwards by 27% and 37% respectively.
Analyst Josef Licsauer wrote that this reflected “strong operating progress”. ByteDance was also the strongest contributor to returns over the year, helped by the agreement over TikTok’s US operations, which removed a long-standing regulatory overhang.
He added: “Amid the volatility, managers Sophie Earnshaw and Linda Lin have been busy, with the portfolio’s annual turnover rising to 24%, compared with 8–20% a year over the previous five years, as valuation dispersion widened across the market.
“They bought AI chip designers Cambricon Technologies and Hygon Information Technology, topped up de-rated consumer names such as Meituan and PDD, and broadened the portfolio’s return drivers through PetroChina and Air China.”
Reflecting the trust’s growth, the board agreed to increase its total dividend for the year by 14%, in line with the gradual shift in “corporate China”. Licsauer explained: “Many companies are striking a better balance between reinvestment and shareholder returns, alongside supportive policymakers.
“At the time of writing, BGCG trades on a 10.1% discount, wider than its five-year average of 9.5%. The board has been active with buybacks, and the trust is on track to avoid triggering its 2028 conditional tender offer.”
However, Licsauer said the jewel of the trust was “Sophie’s and Linda’s layered approach, giving exposure across the whole AI value chain”. He added: “Few markets divide opinion quite like China, and few reward conviction as handsomely when the tide turns. We think BGCG is well positioned for that moment, as its portfolio is already well placed around the industries Beijing is backing hardest, from AI and semiconductors to electrification.
“Two opportunities also look underappreciated to us. China’s AI build-out is still in its infancy, with capital expenditure a fraction of that in the US, while pessimism towards the consumer has left quality franchises on depressed valuations, where the managers argue stabilisation alone could drive returns.
Sophie Earnshaw, investment manager at Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust
“Neither is without risk, of course, as parts of the AI complex now need strong delivery to justify their valuations, and with policy support for the consumer targeted rather than broad, a recovery may take time.
“But what really sets BGCG apart, to us, is its private book: a stake in two of China’s most exciting businesses. ByteDance has been the trust’s largest contributor to relative returns since 2020, RedNote’s rapid growth suggests it could follow a similar path, and a reported listing could crystallise value.
“The flip side, however, is concentration. ByteDance alone makes up 14.5% of assets, and private valuations are less transparent than listed prices, so any reversal would be keenly felt.”
He concluded that the “potential reward outweighs these risks”, highlighting the trust as an attractive asset for investors. He explained: “The portfolio offers faster earnings growth and higher returns on equity than the index on near-market multiples, in a market that itself trades at a steep discount to others globally. And despite three years of outperformance, BGCG’s discount remains wide at 10.1%.
“For long-term investors able to stomach the volatility, this could offer a timely moment to revisit the strategy, offering a differentiated, high-conviction way to access China’s growth potential.”

