‘Dull is good’ for stabilising UK gilt market

'Dull is good' for stabilising UK gilt market

Predicting three bank rate cuts in 2026, Matthew Amis, investment director at Aberdeen Investments, has welcomed the uneventful start to the year for the UK gilt market, noting that a “dull” environment is exactly what is required after the volatility preceding the recent Budget.

While the Budget’s content helped calm investor nerves, Mr Amis argues that the strategic actions of the Debt Management Office (DMO) have been the true catalyst driving the recent strong performance of gilts.

He said: “We continue to favour owning the UK gilt market. We are positioned at both the front end of the UK curve and in longer maturities.

“At the front end, we ultimately believe the Bank of England will deliver more cuts than the market believes. The market currently believes the BoE will deliver between one and two cuts this year. We think the BoE could quite easily deliver three cuts.”

He added: “We also favour owning 30-year gilts. This position has worked well as the DMO has continued to favour shorter maturity issuance. Next week, the DMO will hold its traditional January long-end maturity syndication.

“This year, that large supply of UK gilts will come in the form of a 15-year maturity, not 30-year. The one caveat to holding UK long maturity gilts is the politics. The noise regarding a potential Labour leadership contest has died down, but that doesn’t mean it has gone away.

“For the time being, the market has other things to focus on but as we head towards the May local elections politics will undoubtedly become the story, again.”

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