Inflation cools to 2.8% but pressures threaten summer rebound

Inflation cools to 2.8% but pressures threaten summer rebound

UK CPI inflation slowed to 2.8% in April, down from 3.3% in March, marking its lowest level since March 2025.

The unexpected drop beat consensus forecasts of 3% and was primarily driven by Ofgem’s lowered household energy price cap, which reduced the typical annual dual-fuel bill in the UK by £117 to £1,641.

Electricity prices fell by 8.4%, while core inflation eased to 2.5% from 3.1%. Services inflation, a critical gauge of underlying domestic pressure for the Bank of England, also softened to 3.2%, reaching its lowest point since January 2022.

City analysts and Scottish financial experts warn that the reprieve will be short-lived. The figures do not yet fully reflect the severe inflationary fallout from the conflict in Iran.

While the energy price cap temporarily insulated consumers, motor fuel prices surged by 23% in the year to April as global oil prices eclipsed $110 a barrel due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Kevin Brown, savings expert at Scottish Friendly, said: “At first glance, April’s surprising inflation reading of 2.8% looks like welcome progress. Yet it should not be taken as a sign that the UK has somehow weathered with resilience the inflationary fallout from the conflict in the Middle East.

“A large reason why inflation eased in April is that the energy price cap was reset lower before the recent surge in oil and gas prices fully fed through to households. When the cap is updated again in July, it is likely to reflect more of the increase in wholesale energy costs that motorists have already experienced at the petrol pumps.

“Today’s figure is unlikely to provide comfort to the Bank of England that inflation pressures are back under control. Another inflation reading is still to come before policymakers next meet in June, which should provide a clearer picture of underlying price pressures ahead of the Bank’s next rate decision.

“If living costs continue to rise over the summer – especially as wage growth slows – many households could find themselves under renewed financial pressure. For those able to take a longer-term view, investing can play an important role in helping preserve and grow wealth over time.”

Luke Bartholomew, deputy chief economist, at Aberdeen, said: “Inflation coming in softer than expected today will further take the pressure off the Bank of England to hike rates over the next few meetings.

“But we are most certainly not out of the woods in terms of the impact of the Iran conflict on inflation. Ironically, this is probably the month inflation would have been back at the 2% target were it not for the Iran war.

“Instead, headline inflation will pick-up again in coming months, especially after the next energy price cap re-set in July. So as inflation climbs back towards 3.5% later this year, the question of interest rate hikes will remain pressing.

“But on balance, we think the weakness of the economy, and the labour market in particular, will stay the Bank’s hand, with rates remaining on hold even as inflation pressures remain elevated.”

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