KPMG: Scots more likely to cut their spending in a “no deal” Brexit  

A new poll by professional services firm KPMG suggests Scottish consumers are less confident of a Brexit deal being reached, and more likely to cut their spending in the event of a “no deal” Brexit, compared to consumers in other parts of the UK.

The study, conducted by Hanbury Strategy for KPMG, surveyed more than 3,000 people across the UK, including 250 people in Scotland, about their Brexit expectations.

In Scotland it has revealed that 59 per cent of Scots are predicting a “no deal” Brexit, with 73 per cent expecting living costs to rise as a result, compared to 54 per cent and 70 per cent of consumers in other parts of the UK.

Around half of respondents living in Scotland said they would cut everyday spending (45 per cent), as well as major purchases (51 per cent), in response to a “no deal” scenario, compared to 43 per cent and 47 per cent of consumers in the rest of the UK.

Despite these concerns about “no deal”, the majority of voters have not changed their mind since the 2016 referendum. 89 per cent of Leave voters said they would still vote Leave and 93% of Remain voters said they would still vote Remain.

The survey coincides with the publication of more than 20 technical notes by the UK Government, covering planning in the event of a “no deal” Brexit, which, according to Dominic Raab, Brexit Secretary, is “unlikely”.

Commenting on the findings, Jenny Stewart, partner and head of public sector for KPMG in Scotland, believes Scottish consumers may need more reassurances than their neighbours in other parts of the UK.

She said: “Following the publication of the UK Government’s technical notes in the event of no deal, it will be interesting to see whether they provide reassurances to businesses and consumers or add to the existing atmosphere of confusion.

“What the public thinks on the likelihood of a no deal matters. Any fall in consumer spending would have an impact across large parts of the economy, and it looks like the effect could be stronger in Scotland. All the more reason to reach a deal sooner rather than later.

“Our survey clearly shows that many people are predicting a ‘no deal’ Brexit and plan to cut spending accordingly Although more than half of respondents (53 per cent) believe the impact of Brexit will be felt the most in the following year, it’s clear that consumers are now prepared for an increase in living costs. It is a turbulent period for Brexit negotiations and this is likely to lead to a direct impact on consumer confidence.”

Key findings relating to a ‘no deal’ Brexit: