Leaked document reveals UK government predicts hard times in Scotland following hard Brexit

The figure, contained in reports analysing the economic impact of Brexit that has been obtained by the online news outlet Buzzfeed, is calculated over a 15-year period.

MPs had been reading the documents, prepared by the Department for Exiting the EU, under controlled conditions prior to the leak.

But it is now known that the UK government’s prediction of a 9 per cent slump in Scottish GDP post Brexit compares with the only very slightly less pessimistic prediction of 8.5 per cent projected in a similar Scottish government study published last month.

The leaked Westminster analysis predicts that economic growth north of the border would also be negative in two other scenarios; if the UK gets a free trade deal it would be 6 per cent lower and if it stays in the single market it would be 2.5 per cent lower.

However, leaving with no deal would see growth slashed by a massive 9 per cent, the figures predict.

Last month the Scottish government’s research predicted that if the UK failed to reach a deal over Brexit and was forced to revert to WTO rules, GDP in Scotland would be about 8.5 per cent – or £12.7 billion – lower by 2030 compared to continued full EU membership.

Meanwhile, under a free trade agreement it is expected Scotland’s GDP would be 6.1 per cent lower – or £9 billion in 2016 cash terms – by 2030.

Staying in the single market would have the least damaging economic impact, with GDP forecast to fall by 2.7 per cent – £4 billion in 2016 cash terms – by 2030.

These figures were dismissed upon publication by the Scottish Conservatives as “completely over-the-top scaremongering” leading to the SNP to now call on the UK Government to immediately publish its analysis in full in the wake of this week’s leak.

SNP spokesman on Europe, Peter Grant MP, said it made “utterly grim reading” and said the Tories must “explain why they accused the Scottish Government of scare-mongering when their own government was covering up similar findings.”

The UK government’s breakdown predicts that the north east of England would be worst hit by Brexit, with growth 3 per cent lower under single market membership, 11 per cent with a free trade deal and 16 per cent under a “no deal” scenario.

London would fare least badly, with its growth slowing just 1 per cent under single market membership, 2 per cent through a free trade deal and 3.5 per cent if there is no deal.

Scotland’s Brexit secretary, Michael Russell, said he would publish the analysis if it was given to him, arguing that the public “has a right to know the impact on jobs and living standards of the UK government’s decision to pursue the UK’s exit from the EU”.

The UK government said the leaked document “does not represent UK Government policy and does not consider the outcome we are seeking in the negotiations”.

A spokesman added: “As Ministers clearly set out in the House, this is provisional internal analysis, part of a broad ongoing programme of analysis, and further work is in progress.

“We are seeking an unprecedented, comprehensive and ambitious economic partnership - one that works for all parts of the UK. We are not expecting a no deal scenario.”