‘Loss of Single Market access will cost every Scot £2,300 each year’

Officials, including First Minster Nicola Sturgeon, said the findings provide evidence that the best way to protect the economy would be to remain in the Single Market and the Customs Union in the event of Brexit.

Publishing its findings today, the Scottish Government said that a failure to remain in the Single Market or to secure a free trade agreement would see Scotland’s GDP around £12.7 billion lower by 2030 than it would be under continued EU membership.

Such a scenario, referred to as a ‘Hard Brexit’, would mean a loss equivalent to £2,300 per year for each person in Scotland, it said.

The analysis takes account of the impact on trade, productivity and migration of different future relationships. It shows that a so called ‘Canada-type’ deal with the EU would still leave Scotland’s GDP £9 billion lower by 2030 – or £1,610 per head.

Other key findings include:

Publishing the new analysis Scotland’s Place in Europe: People, Jobs and Investment, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said: “By insisting on hard-line pre-conditions the UK Government is itself closing the doors on what can be achieved in talks with the EU on the future relationship.

“The aim of the Scottish Government, and the evidence presented in this paper, is to start opening those doors again.

“For the sake of jobs, the economy and the next generation, today we are calling on the UK Government to drop its hard Brexit red-lines so that Scotland and the UK can stay inside the Single Market and Customs Union.

“Scotland is particularly well-placed to take advantage of the developing and deepening Single Market – the world’s biggest economy of 500 million people, eight times the size of the UK.

“Our brilliant world-class universities, our unrivalled potential in renewable energy, our life sciences industry, our digital sector and other key areas of the Scottish economy are all in prime position to reap the rewards of these developments.

“That will mean more jobs and higher wages. It would be a tragedy for future generations if we let that opportunity pass us by.

“The fact that the Prime Minister wants to leave not only the political structures of the EU but come out of the European Economic Area shows just how extreme the UK Government position is. With just weeks to go before the opening of talks on the future relationship that extreme stance must be dropped.”

Minister for Negotiations on Scotland’s Place in Europe Michael Russell added: “People in Scotland voted decisively to remain in the European Union and we continue to believe this is the best option for Scotland and the UK as a whole. Short of EU membership, the Scottish Government believes the UK and Scotland must stay inside the Single Market and Customs Union.

“The decisions taken in the next few months will be crucial for jobs, wages and opportunities for generations to come and it is vital that the Scottish Government are properly engaged in these decisions.”

Reacting to the report, Scottish Conservative constitution spokesman Adam Tomkins, accused the Scottish government of “scaremongering”, saying the SNP had proved with their 2014 white paper on independence that “their financial forecasts simply cannot be trusted”.

Meanwhile, a UK government spokeswoman said: “We are seeking a deal that works for the whole of the UK, that delivers on the result of the EU referendum.

“Rather than trying to undermine the result of a democratic referendum, we urge the Scottish government to work with us to ensure, as we leave the EU, we protect the UK’s vital internal market.

“Scotland trades four times as much with the rest of the UK as it does with the EU, so it is vital that we ensure that market continues unimpeded.”