Multiple sector decline leads to 0.3% October GDP contraction

Multiple sector decline leads to 0.3% October GDP contraction

The UK economy has faced a downturn in October, with a contraction observed across all major sectors, which saw GDP fall by 0.3% month-on-month.

The decline was notably consistent with the sluggish trends indicated in recent business surveys. The EY ITEM Club’s chief economic advisor, Martin Beck, highlights that this contraction encompassed the service, production, and construction sectors.

He explained: “The decline was primarily driven by a fall in services activity. Consumer-facing services activity fell for the fourth consecutive month, following a weak set of retail sales.

“Meanwhile, fewer working days lost to public sector strikes in October caused a rebound in health activity, but this boost was more than offset by broad-based weakness across the rest of the services category.



“Elsewhere, production output declined by 0.8% month-on-month, while the construction sector’s 0.5% month-on-month fall was likely influenced by a period of heavy rainfall and strong winds in October. These developments mirrored a weak set of readings in October’s S&P Global/CIPS manufacturing and construction surveys.”

Mr Beck concluded: “Monthly GDP data can be quite noisy, and the EY ITEM Club thinks there’s a good chance that output will rebound in November.

“But last week’s announcement that junior doctors will strike between December 20-23 suggests that activity is likely to slow again in December, and raises the risk that output contracts over Q4 as a whole. With another doctor’s strike scheduled for January 3-8, Q1 2024 also looks likely to get off to a challenging start.”

 

Share icon
Share this article: