‘Nasty set of tax rises’ coming in Reeves’ Budget, warns economist Paul Johnson

'Nasty set of tax rises' coming in Reeves’ Budget, warns economist Paul Johnson

Professor Paul Johnson CBE

People should brace themselves for a “nasty set of tax rises” in Rachel Reeves’ forthcoming Autumn Budget, according to leading economist and public policy expert Professor Paul Johnson CBE.

Speaking at the ICAS Annual Conference 2025 in London on 5 November, Prof Johnson – Provost of The Queen’s College Oxford and former Director of the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) – warned that the Chancellor’s pre-budget speech on 4 November was both confusing and concerning, describing it as “strange” and called for clarity on the UK government’s growth plans. 

He said: “You need clarity on what the model for growth is and we are so far away from achieving that. The government is talking a good game but not following it up on their actions. They need to change their actions as well as their words if we’re really going to get that growth.”



Prof Johnson – who led the IFS for 14 years – suggested that Reeves is likely to raise taxes again despite having promised not to a year ago. He added: “My sense is that things have deteriorated by £20-30bn – but the problem is, I think she’ll raise taxes by more than things have deteriorated.”

Discussing unavoidable tax rises, he argued that targeting businesses was the wrong approach: “If you do need to increase taxes then you need to do it on income tax or VAT not on businesses or employers. So, the politics and economics crash up against each other.”

When asked about structural reform, Prof Johnson stated: “There is no magic bullet. But what you need is a long-term strategy that is actually, properly, genuinely focused on growth, and we haven’t that from recent government’s including this one.”

The conference also featured discussions on political communication and leadership and the UK on the global stage. Journalist and author Tina Brown CBE highlighted the importance of media and entertainment skills in modern politics, citing New York mayoral winner Zohran Mamdani as an example of effective communication.

Margaret Casely-Hayford CBE commented that the UK needed “a grown up in the room’” following the Boris Johnson’s time as Prime Minister, and for some, Keir Starmer fitted the bill. She went on to say that it’s vital that the UK is “commanding the world stage in a way that makes people respect us”. James Sproule, chief economist at Handelsbanken UK, criticized the government’s lack of business experience and engagement.

ICAS’ hybrid conference brought together business leaders, policymakers, and Chartered Accountants to explore the challenges shaping tomorrow. Sessions covered topics including the future of finance, AI-driven ethical leadership, sustainability, cyber governance, ESG reporting, and business decarbonisation.

Commenting on the event, Bruce Cartwright, ICAS CEO, said: “The 2025 ICAS Annual Conference brought together business leaders, policymakers, and Chartered Accountants to tackle the biggest challenges facing the UK economy.

“From fiscal policy to innovation and sustainability, our aim was to spark conversation and connection, share insights, and equip attendees with the knowledge they need to navigate change with confidence.”

ICAS President Karen Scholes CA opened the conference with a discussion on what it means to be a Chartered Accountant during a time of rapid change, how ICAS is empowering the next generation of business leaders to understand that technology is their opportunity, and explaining how ICAS has been preparing for this new age of accountancy, business and finance.

The conference programme including lively panel discussions on the UK’s place on the world stage; AI’s impact on the accountancy profession, and ethical leadership in business with several breakout sessions covering issues such as cyber governance, ESG reporting, and business decarbonisation.

The closing keynote was delivered by astronaut Tim Peake, who reflected on his career, lessons in resilience, growth mindset, lifelong learning, Space X.

A full list of event speakers and sessions at the 2025 ICAS Annual Conference can be found here.

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