Dougie Robb

In July, over 10.6% of adults in Britain – equating to more than five million people – spent more than they earned, according to the latest Economic Nowcast released by Smart Data Foundry, a subsidiary of the University of Edinburgh.

The figure was 10.6% in England, down 0.4% on the previous month, compared to 10.4% in Scotland (down 1.3%) and 10.1% in Wales (down 0.3%).

Individual income rose sharply across all three countries with a nationwide average increase of 7.29% from June to July. England saw the biggest boost at 6.89%, ahead of Scotland at 6.29% and Wales at 5.81%.

However, Scots have the highest incomes overall – on average they are £27.56 per week better off than their English counterparts. The average weekly income was £358.70 in Scotland, compared to £333.09 in Wales and £331.14 in England.

The Nowcast, which was launched earlier this year, has just been extended to include a breakdown of data on a nation-by-nation basis. 

Based on anonymised data from five million consumer bank accounts and over 100,000 UK SMEs, the Nowcast offers a unique view of shifts in economic wellbeing across consumers and small businesses.  

The report shines a spotlight on three vital indicators of financial resilience and productivity across Great Britain – percentage of people spending more than they earn and average weekly income, both updated monthly, and small business productivity, updated each quarter.

Across Great Britain, the average revenue generated per employee of small businesses in Q2 was £11,028 – a 4.19% rise on Q1.

Dougie Robb, CEO of Smart Data Foundry, said: “It’s valuable not only to see variations in economic resilience across Great Britain as a whole, but to be able to drill down into what is happening within each of the three nations.  

“Whilst the precise reasons incomes are improving aren’t always clear from the data, we believe there are a number of factors potentially driving this such as minimum wage increases being reflected in the data, people in sectors like hospitality and travel working additional hours over the summer months, and the payment of bonuses. 

“The strength of the Nowcast lies in its ability to provide near real-time insights for policymakers, analysts, and service providers.

“By capturing monthly variations, emerging trends, and the economic impact of global events, extreme weather such as floods, and other shocks, it supplements official statistics and enhances the ability to respond to economic challenges quickly and effectively.” 

The Economic Nowcast is powered by data from NatWest Group, with Sage providing data on SME productivity. Data methodologies can be found on the Smart Data Foundry
website.