RBS PMI: Scottish private sector output stagnated in September

RBS PMI: Scottish private sector output stagnated in September

According to the latest Royal Bank of Scotland PMI, business activity was unchanged in September, following three months of growth.

The PMI also revealed that September saw the quickest fall in new orders for businesses since March, and the third successive monthly reduction in workforce numbers, which declined at the fastest rate for nearly three-and-a-half years.

Anecdotal evidence linked falls in new business and activity to continued economic and political uncertainty. Despite improving from August, business confidence in September was the second-lowest since July 2016 - the month following the EU referendum.

The seasonally adjusted headline Royal Bank of Scotland Business Activity Index - a measure of combined manufacturing and service sector output - slipped from 50.3 in August to post at the 50.0 neutral mark in September, signalling a stagnation of private sector business activity. Sectors diverged, as a marginal expansion in the service sector was undermined by a sharp fall in manufacturing output, the joint-quickest since December 2010.



September data signalled a back-to-back reduction in order book volumes, with the fall quickening to the fastest since March. Panellists associated the marginal decline to weak demand conditions and Brexit uncertainty.

Manufacturers reported lower order book volumes for the thirteenth month in a row, with the latest fall marked overall. Meanwhile, service-providing firms saw a marginal increase in new business.

Lower levels of new business-led firms to reduce workforce numbers in September. The fall in employment stretched the current sequence of reduction to three months, with the rate of job shedding accelerating to the fastest since April 2016.

Elsewhere, subdued demand pressures allowed businesses to focus resources on clearing backlogs, as the level of outstanding business fell marginally in September. That said, the rate of backlog depletion eased to the joint-softest in the past year.

Input prices increased sharply according to the latest survey data, with the rate of input price inflation the fastest seen in three months. Respondents associated rising cost burdens with unfavourable exchange rates.

Meanwhile, average prices charged by private sector firms in Scotland rose only marginally in September, with price inflation easing to the slowest rate in the current 38-month sequence of rising charges.

Finally, September data indicated a historically subdued level of business confidence towards the coming 12 months. The level of positive sentiment was the second-lowest in over three years, despite strengthening from August.

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