RICS: Political uncertainty takes toll on Scottish commercial and industrial property market
During Q4 2018, growth in workloads within the Scottish commercial and industrial segments declined with a net balance of -14 and -7 per cent of respondents reporting a drop in activity, respectively, according to the results of the Q4 2018 RICS Construction and Infrastructure Market Survey.
However, the activity across construction sectors varied, with a net balance of +17 per cent of contributors to the RICS survey reporting growth in private housing workloads across Scotland. Public sector workloads were mixed, but surveyors reported growth in housing with a net balance of 8 per cent seeing an acceleration to growth in public sector housing. Infrastructure workloads also remained steady with a net balance of 8 per cent seeing a rise in workloads over the quarter.
Anecdotal evidence from respondents suggest that the housing market slowdown, coupled with ongoing policy ambiguity related to Brexit, is weighing on business investment decisions. When asked how business enquiries for new projects or contracts have fared in the past three months, 10 per cent more respondents across the UK reported an increase rather than a decrease compared to 24 per cent in Q3. Growth in repair and maintenance work remains modestly positive.
Looking at factors across the UK constraining activity, financial constraints are reported by 78 per cent of surveyors to be by far the most significant impediment to building. Difficulties with access to bank finance and credit, along with cash flow and liquidity challenges, are often cited reasons alongside generally less favourable cyclical market conditions. When asked how credit conditions have changed over the past three months, 20 per cent more respondents report a deterioration rather than improvement.
Shortage of skilled labour continues to pose a significant challenge almost half of respondents in Scotland, particularly with regard to professional services such as quantity surveying.
The challenges for the procurement of labour differ by role. Looking at the UK as a whole, 64 per cent of surveyors expressed the view that workers from the EU were not important to their hiring requirements of surveying professionals, and the solution to this issue remains firmly domestic within the training and education areas with 68 per cent of contributors to this survey citing education as the most effective policy tool in addressing the current skills dilemma, compared to 15 per cent for immigration.
However, as the Brexit deadline draws near it should be noted that EU nationals are an important part of the mix particularly with regards to addressing the skills issue in increasing capacity to build on construction sites. With EU nationals accounting for eight percent of the UK’s construction workforce, this accounts for well over 175 thousand people, according to recent RICS figures.
In terms of geographical breakdown across the UK, workload growth is now reported to be decelerating across all regions. London and the Southeast were particularly affected with a lack of growth across the private housing, commercial and industrial subsectors buoyed by positive momentum in infrastructure and public spending. Over the past three months, new business enquiries were strongest in the North (+24 per cent) and weakest in Northern Ireland (-21 per cent). Meanwhile, year-ahead expectations for workloads and hiring are the most resilient in Scotland with net balances of +38 per cent and 31 per cent, respectively.
Tender price expectations over the next twelve months throughout the UK are expected to be squeezed with 51 per cent and 40 per cent more respondents envisaging greater price pressures in the building and civil engineering areas, respectively. The expected increase in tender prices reflects higher input costs and ongoing competitive bidding pressures for businesses. Expectations on industry profit margins have been flat for the second consecutive quarter in Q4 2018.
Jeffrey Matsu, RICS senior economist, said: “The protracted uncertainty engendered by the Brexit impasse is becoming ever more apparent with workloads in the commercial and industrial sectors grinding to a standstill. While the challenges are particularly acute in London, the additional £1 billion in additional HRA borrowing to fund council housing has begun to stimulate activity. The subsequent scrapping of the cap in last year’s Budget has the potential to accelerate this positive trend in the public sector over the coming years.
Capacity remains an ongoing constraint for activity more broadly, however, with surveyors reporting a ramping up of new hiring even despite a moderation in business enquiries. Continued access to a qualified pool of non-UK workers to support this growth will be as important as ever, particularly for work on construction sites.”