RSM: Edinburgh effect flatters Scottish hotel figures as energy crisis looms

RSM: Edinburgh effect flatters Scottish hotel figures as energy crisis looms

The Scottish hotels sector proved resilient in February, with both occupancy and gross operating profits rising slightly year-on-year and bucking the trend of the wider UK market, according to the RSM Hotels Tracker.

However, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and persistent cost pressures could hamper future growth of the industry.

The data, which is compiled and produced by Hotstats and analysed by RSM UK, shows Scottish hotel occupancy rose from 69.1% to 72.2% in February year-on-year, but was relatively flat in the UK, rising from 71.7% to 71.9%. Gross operating profits in Scotland also rose from 15.3% in February 2025 to 17.6% in February 2026, while overall UK profits fell from 23.4% to 22.3% year-on-year.

Average daily rates (ADR) of occupied rooms in Scotland rose from £99.11 to £105.97 in February year-on-year, compared to a UK average of £128.09, up from £125.97 in 2025. Revenue per available room (RevPAR) was also up from £68.45 to £76.46 in Scotland, compared to the UK-wide average which saw a slight increase from £90.31 to £92.07.

Katie Morrison, partner and head of consumer markets at RSM in Scotland, said: “While the latest data points to a comparatively promising performance for Scottish hotels in February, these results are likely skewed by higher rates across Edinburgh and St Andrews.

“Overall, the year-on-year figures remain relatively flat as persistent headwinds threaten future growth prospects. The widespread disruptions and continued cost pressures exacerbated by the conflict in the Middle East mean that the UK-wide hotel sector faces an uphill battle heading into Spring. Uncertainty over energy prices, inflation and interest rate hikes risk knocking both industry and consumer confidence and further squeezing already tight profit margins.”

“Scotland’s strong reliance on the international tourism market also heightens the sector’s vulnerability to the impact of geopolitical disruptions – particularly if more consumers opt not to travel abroad. Fuel shortages and travel disruption risks, combined with overall cost-of-living pressures could prove a hard blow to consumer’s summer holiday plans. However, there is some potential for the staycation market to benefit, should UK tourists choose not to head abroad due to global volatility.

“Even if a permanent resolution to the conflict is soon confirmed, it’s unlikely to translate to an immediate recovery of oil and gas prices. Hopes of a full recovery during the sector’s peak seasons are therefore unlikely to materialise, which may in turn hamper overall growth in 2026.

“With the Scottish elections looming, there is a significant opportunity for the new government to provide much-needed support and investment for the sector. A collaborative approach, working with UK government counterparts and key industry voices, would be particularly valuable in helping to shape future regulation and policies that help the sector flourish, rather than hinder growth.”

Commenting on the UK-wide picture, Thomas Pugh, chief economist at RSM UK, added: “The hotel sector faces a triple blow from the energy crisis. As the one of the most energy intensive service industries, the sector will face a bigger increase in input costs than others.

“At the same time, rising energy costs for consumers mean a squeeze in disposable incomes that will likely result in a drop in spending on things like hotel stays, especially for the “squeezed middle”.

“Finally, the sharp rise in travel costs, especially flights, and an increase in business input costs more generally, are likely to curtail business travel. The result is likely to be a reduction in hotels’ margins as both costs and revenue are impacted.”

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