RSM: Scotland’s hotel performance holds up, but uncertainty ahead amid geopolitical tensions
Gross operating profits, occupancy and room rates of Scottish hotels rose in January, but there’s uncertainty ahead for the industry amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East, according to RSM UK.
The data, which is compiled and produced by Hotstats and analysed by RSM UK, showed that while gross operating profits in Scotland had increased year on year, they remained low overall, rising from 3.4% to 5.4%. This compared to a higher but static UK-wide figure of 18.8%.
Occupancy of Scottish hotels rose from 58.4% to 62% in January year-on-year. This was lower than the UK figures, which rose slightly from 62.8% to 63.5%. Average daily rates (ADR) of occupied rooms in Scotland were also up from £92.30 to £95.89 in January year-on-year, compared to a UK-wide average of £124.48, up from £122.24.
Revenue per available room (RevPAR) was also up in Scotland from £53.89 to £59.44, compared to a UK increase from £76.72 to £79.03.
Katie Morrison
Katie Morrison, partner and head of consumer markets at RSM in Scotland, said: “Consumer demand for hotels and travel held up in Scotland in January, normally a seasonally slow month.
“However, with gross operating profits so low, there’s very little headroom for Scotland’s hotels to cope with the increased cost pressures ahead, including more energy price hikes and increased staff costs. Such low average margins suggest that while some hotels, particularly the luxury ones, are doing comparatively well, others may be running at a loss.
“Scotland relies heavily on the international tourism market. Current travel disruption due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could impact this market significantly, and Scotland’s hoteliers are likely to feel the pinch. This is worrying, considering they already have so little headroom in their profit margins.
“Recent data from the Scottish Tourism Alliance highlighted that over half of Scotland’s tourism businesses have little or no financial reserves, meaning many are not well placed to face future additional pressures.
“With Scotland’s elections coming up, hoteliers will be looking closely to see where policies might enable the sector to flourish again, to alleviate the significant pressures the industry is facing.”
Commenting on the UK-wide picture, Thomas Pugh, chief economist at RSM UK, added: “The outlook for the hotel sector is now arguably less rosy.
“Hotels are still one of the most energy intensive service industries, even though the sector has improved energy efficiency by about a third compared to its pre-Covid average. That means hotels will be hit harder than other industries by rising energy costs.
“At the same time, rising energy prices will place a squeeze on consumers’ disposable income, which will eventually weigh on experience-led spending. Firms may also look to curtail business travel if energy prices rise higher, which would represent a further hit to demand.
“Of course, everything depends on how long energy prices stay high for. Consumers are more likely to smooth through a temporary price shock by reducing saving rates, which are currently high. If there is a swift resolution to the crisis, the hit to the sector and economy should be limited. But the risks are clearly to the downside, and the hotel industry is more exposed than others.”

