Scotland outpaces UK with 1.4% annual growth despite trade headwinds
Scotland’s onshore GDP grew by 0.1% in the final quarter of 2025 (the three months to December), according to statistics announced by the Chief Statistician.
This steady performance followed a 0.3% expansion in the previous quarter, culminating in an annual growth rate of 1.4% for 2025.
In the month to December 2025 Scotland’s GDP grew by 0.1%. This follows a contraction of 0.2% in November 2025 (revised up from -0.4%) and contraction of 0.2% in October 2025.
In December the two sectors with the largest contribution to three month GDP were manufacturing and professional, scientific and technical services which contributed around 0.1 percentage points of growth respectively towards the overall three month growth of 0.1%.
Kevin Brown, savings expert at Scottish Friendly, said: “Scotland has marginally outperformed the rest of the UK in 2025 – and in the current climate, that is no small achievement. Growth remains weak by historical standards but given Scotland’s export-heavy profile at a time when tariffs have slowed global trade, the result is pleasantly surprising.
“Much of the relative resilience reflects strength in business services and finance, which made the largest positive contribution to GDP in Q4. That underlines the importance of Scotland’s professional and financial services base in helping to offset softer external demand for goods.
“More recent PMI data shows the UK private sector output continued its rebound in February, suggesting that we could see growth pick up in the coming months. However, clearly rising trade tensions have the potential to act as headwinds for key exports such as whisky and salmon.
“With growth firming, interest rates expected to fall and inflation set to ease over the next year, there is a chance that Scottish households could finally start to feel materially better off after a prolonged squeeze on living standards.”
Deputy First Minister Kate Forbes said: “These figures are encouraging. Scotland’s economy grew in every quarter of 2025, with growth of 1.4% over the year.
“The Scottish Government has a strong record of investing in businesses through programmes like the Scottish National Investment Bank, which reached £1 billion in committed investment this week, and our enterprise agencies.
“Our Techscaler initiative, which helps tech start-ups to scale and grow, and our Small Business Bonus Scheme — the most generous of its kind in the UK — show our commitment to a thriving economy.
“At present migration and most economic, fiscal and other levers lie with the UK government and policy choices like the increase to employer’s National Insurance Contributions have damaged Scotland’s economy and caused job losses. With the full powers of an independent country, we can deliver a better, fairer, growing economy.”

