Scotland’s GDP falls 0.2% in February, but quarterly growth hits 0.7%

Scotland's GDP falls 0.2% in February, but quarterly growth hits 0.7%

Scotland’s onshore economy experienced a slight contraction in February 2025, with GDP falling by 0.2%, according to official statistics.

This followed upwardly revised growth of 0.4% in January, up from 0.3%.

Despite the monthly decline, the Scottish economy showed positive momentum over the medium term, expanding by 0.7% in the three months to February compared to the previous three-month period. This marks an improvement on the revised 0.1% growth recorded in the final quarter of 2024.

In February, a significant 14.1% expansion in the electricity & gas supply sector provided the largest boost to GDP. However, this was offset by contractions elsewhere, notably a 3.5% decline in the information & communications sector, which had the largest negative impact.



Deputy First Minister Kate Forbes acknowledged that “global economic uncertainty has been rising” but welcomed the 0.7% three-month growth. She stated the Scottish Government’s forthcoming Programme for Government would aim to attract investment and jobs, while calling for “bold and decisive action” from the UK government, including “the reversal of its damaging decision to increase employers’ national insurance contributions”.

Kevin Brown, Savings Specialist at Scottish Friendly, noted that while Scotland’s monthly performance lagged the UK figure for February (0.5%), its three-month growth slightly outperformed the UK (0.6%).

He said: “Encouraging retail sales data earlier in the month also showed increasing confidence among Scottish consumers.

“The picture might however worsen as the economy feels the heat from Donald Trump’s tariff regime. The final level of tariffs is unclear, but if the US persists with a 10% levy, it threatens to hurt key Scottish exports such as whisky and salmon.

“The US president has been backing away from tariffs in recent days and may yet pull back under pressure from US consumers. However, some damage is inevitable and Scotland’s economy will not escape completely. A small consolation may come from an interest rate cut in May, which now looks increasingly likely.

“The near-term outlook for the Scottish economy is cloudy. For households, smart saving and investing could be key to weathering any global turbulence — by locking in the best savings rates or considering stock market options, which have a strong track record of outpacing inflation. Of course, past performance is not a guide to the future and with investing your capital is at risk.”

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