Scotland’s quarterly GDP edges Up 0.2% as sectoral struggles persist
Scotland’s economy experienced a modest expansion in the three months to February 2026, with onshore GDP rising by 0.2%.
This followed a marginal increase of 0.1% in the preceding three-month period ending in January. While monthly figures for February showed slight growth of 0.1%, this represents a significant cooling of momentum compared to the 0.5% surge recorded in January.
The quarterly growth was primarily bolstered by the Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services sector alongside Information and Communications, which each added 0.1 percentage points to the headline figure. The Electricity and Gas Supply sector acted as a primary drag on the economy, detracting 0.2 percentage points from overall growth.
Kevin Brown, a savings specialist at Scottish Friendly, expressed caution regarding the underlying stability of this growth, pointing out the “sharp slowdown in momentum just before conflict escalated in the Middle East is far from ideal and will raise concerns among policymakers”.
He highlighted that the construction and production sectors were already showing signs of struggle prior to the conflict.
“It is these two parts of the economy most vulnerable to a prolonged global shock,” he said. “These sectors are more reliant on raw materials and energy, meaning any sustained rise in oil and input costs will hit hard, squeezing margins and slowing activity further.”
Mr Brown continued: “While there is a ceasefire in place at present, it seems fragile. The concern is that there is disruption again in the Strait of Hormuz. This would have a negative knock-on effect on key Scottish exports such as whisky and salmon, which rely on stable global shipping routes.
“In the short-term, the fate of the Scottish economy – and indeed the global economy – depends on what happens next in the Middle East. Anything other than a quick resolution will be damaging for growth.
“In this environment, households should focus on things they can control. That means shopping around for the best energy deals, savings accounts and mortgages rate to make sure their finances are as resilient as possible to withstand a prolonged shock to the global economy.”

