This marks a decline from the 0.1% growth recorded in the three months to December 2025, and 0.4% in the three months to November 2025.

On a monthly basis, however, the picture was more encouraging. GDP grew by 0.5% in January 2026, following no growth in December and a contraction of 0.3% in November. Across the three months to January, the services sector grew by 0.2% and production output by 0.1%, though construction contracted sharply by 2.0%.

Deputy First Minister Kate Forbes welcomed the monthly figures, noting that Scotland’s economy grew by 1.4% overall in 2025, outpacing the UK as a whole, and pointing to recent investment announcements from Ryanair, Center Parcs and Kight Powerhub as evidence of continued confidence in the Scottish economy, supporting more than 2,300 jobs.

She cautioned, however, that rising energy prices driven by conflict in the Middle East were placing real pressure on businesses and households, and criticised the UK Government for being “disappointingly slow to act,” contrasting it with the Scottish Government’s Emergency Heating Oil Scheme.

Industry voices were more circumspect about the underlying outlook. Kevin Brown, savings specialist at Scottish Friendly, argued that the January data was already “borderline irrelevant” given the speed at which global conditions had deteriorated.

He warned that soaring energy prices, rising mortgage rates and the threat of renewed inflation could prompt consumers to rein in spending – a serious concern for an economy heavily reliant on consumer demand.

Mr Brown also flagged the potential impact on key Scottish exports, including oil, whisky and salmon, should shipping disruption persist around strategic chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz.

With the economic outlook deeply uncertain, Mr Brown urged: “In this environment, predicting the future is near impossible. Therefore, households should focus on things they can control.

“That means shopping around for the best energy deals, savings account and mortgage rate to make sure their finances are as resilient as possible to withstand a prolonged shock to the global economy.”