The anonymised data provided by the bank revealed that economic uncertainty is now the biggest challenge cited by business leaders across Scotland. However, 88 per cent of survey respondents feel confident about their own business prosperity over the next 12 months.

A total of 41 per cent of small businesses (10-49 employees) reported the level of certainty over future policy is having a negative impact on their business, while 61 per cent of larger businesses (250+ employees) said the opposite, claiming a positive effect. 

Despite uncertainty in the external environment, Scottish leaders remain confident about the future of their own businesses. Of the  88 per cent of survey respondents who feel confident about their prosperity over the next 12 months, with a 6 point lead for large firms (92 per cent) compared to small businesses (86 per cent). Across all business sizes, 87 per cent and 86 per cent of Scottish leaders are confident over the next three and five years. 

Six months after ‘Liberation Day’ (2 April 2025, when US tariffs were introduced), 83 per cent of businesses in Scotland remain concerned about trade and tariff uncertainty. 
For many, trade policy has become a determining factor in their strategy, with over 79 per cent revealing that uncertainty has influenced where their business is choosing to invest.  

The effects have been felt most acutely in global supply chains, with rising costs for goods and materials the most cited challenge since Liberation Day, affecting one third (33 per cent) of businesses in Scotland.  

In response, 23 per cent of businesses have scaled back their operations, investment, or supply chain in the US since tariffs were announced. Instead, companies are turning towards Europe, which leaders say has seen the biggest increase in international trade since Liberation Day. Over half of businesses in Scotland (58 per cent) plan to prioritise these markets over the next 12 months. 

However, amid the global disruption, there have been some positive outcomes for the UK economy, with two in 10 businesses in Scotland (31 per cent) reporting that the new environment has improved the competitiveness of UK-made products. An additional 30 per cent of businesses are increasing their investment in the domestic market as a result. 

Anonymous client data from Barclays revealed a similar picture, with inbound international payments increasing 2.3 per cent year-on-year in Scotland pointing to stabilisation in cross-border activity. 

Scottish business cash inflows fell 6.1 per cent year-on-year in Q3 (a 1.8 percentage point decrease compared to Q2), while outflows dropped 7.1 per cent year-on-year, amidst disciplined spend control.

Jamie Grant, head of Barclays Corporate Banking in Scotland, said: “Scottish businesses continue to show remarkable resilience and optimism, even in the face of uncertainty. Their ability to adapt, innovate, and invest for the future is what sets Scotland apart as a thriving hub for growth.

“At Barclays, we’re proud to stand alongside these businesses – providing the support, expertise, and funding they need to seize new opportunities and drive prosperity across the region.”