UK economy’s surprise 0.5% jump in February masks underlying worries

UK economy's surprise 0.5% jump in February masks underlying worries

The UK economy showed unexpected strength in February, with GDP expanding by 0.5% – significantly outpacing economists’ forecasts of 0.1% growth.

This positive revision followed an upgrade for January’s performance from a slight contraction to flat growth (0.0%), providing a welcome boost for Chancellor Rachel Reeves.

Growth was reported across all main sectors. Manufacturing rebounded strongly after a downturn, industrial production surged 1.5% month-on-month, and the construction sector also recovered. Services continued to expand, with consumer-facing services rising 0.7% for the fourth consecutive month, boosted by areas like computer programming, telecoms, car dealerships, and particularly strong performance in the travel sector reflecting increased holiday spending.



Some analysts suggested manufacturing’s strength might partially stem from companies “tariff frontrunning” – building inventories ahead of anticipated higher import costs resulting from US trade policy.

However, significant doubts remain about whether this momentum can be sustained. Economists caution that February’s figure may be the last strong reading before economic headwinds intensify. Major concerns centre on the impact of US tariffs, which are expected to directly hit UK exports and indirectly affect trade through a weaker global economy.

This external pressure adds to domestic challenges, including inflation-busting utility bill and council tax increases for consumers, alongside significant tax rises for businesses.

Matt Swannell, chief economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club, said: “Even abstracting from data quality issues, we expect UK GDP growth to slow from here. Following US tariff announcements, the UK’s export sector will feel the direct effects from reduced access to a key market.

“But the indirect impact on UK trade from a weaker global economy will be just as important. Domestically, more uncertainty will weigh on consumer spending and businesses’ capital expenditure decisions.

“With a cautious Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) likely to proceed with careful interest rate cuts, the impact of past rate rises still to be felt by some households, and fiscal policy tightening significantly, the UK growth outlook remains very challenging.”

Kevin Brown, savings specialist at Scottish Friendly, added: “Major economists continue to revise growth lower, with KPMG the latest group to cut its estimates. The uncertain trading environment is undoubtedly part of the problem, but the UK has some home-grown issues as well, including high energy costs which will continue to hurt UK households.

“This is an uncertain moment for the global economy. The UK is unlikely to be immune from the disruption to global trade.

“However, in spite of the volatility, the standard rule of thumb still applies when considering your savings and investments – think long-term and try not to get too distracted by short-term ups and downs.”

Joe Nellis, economic adviser at accountancy firm MHA, said: “The outlook for the global economy is challenging and the threat of a downturn looms large over the geopolitical soap opera surrounding the US administration.

“Elon Musk has this week called for a ‘free trade zone’ between the US and Europe including the UK – given the influence he has on the President, does this offer a glimmer of hope for a change in fortunes for the embattled British economy? The chaos of the last week suggests that your guess is as good as mine.”

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