Amanda Collinson

Scotland’s food and drink sector is rightly proud of its global success. We export to more than 100 countries, with Scotch whisky, salmon and beef among our premium products flying the flag for quality and heritage. But the international trading landscape is shifting, and it is essential that businesses reassess their target markets in response.

With the US introducing a 10 % tariff on Scotch whisky under President Trump’s second term, many Scottish exporters are now facing tighter margins and added uncertainty in what has long been a cornerstone market. The US remains important – it was worth £1.1 billion in UK food and drink exports last year – but these new trade barriers should act as a wake-up call. The sector cannot afford to be over-reliant on any single market, no matter how well established it is.

In contrast, India is rapidly establishing itself as one of the most promising destinations for Scottish food and drink.

As the world’s largest whisky-consuming country, with over 290 million nine-litre cases sold annually – nearly three times the size of the US market – India has long been a focus for our Scotch distilleries, but import tariffs of up to 150% have made it difficult to gain a foothold.

That may soon change. The UK and India governments recently signed a landmark Free Trade Agreement which could significantly reduce duties on Scotch whisky – potentially halving them over time. The Scotch Whisky Association estimates that a meaningful tariff cut could unlock £1bn in additional exports over the next five years, creating an enormous opportunity for one of our biggest and most important UK exports.

The potential, however, extends beyond spirits. Biscuits, chocolate, and soft drinks are categories where Scottish brands are well placed to grow. Walkers Shortbread’s appointment of Andy Murray as a global ambassador isn’t just a nod to British sporting pride – it is a calculated move to connect with markets like India, where UK-made treats hold premium appeal and British heritage resonates with consumers. Biscuits are a household staple in India, and the appetite for high-quality, trusted imports is growing fast.

There is also a significant opportunity for craft soft drinks to target this rapidly evolving market. India’s younger consumers are increasingly health-conscious and urban, and seeking sophisticated, international alternatives to sugary sodas and alcohol. Scottish producers of botanicals, sparkling water, and adult soft drinks have a genuine first-mover advantage if they act now.

Many businesses will be tempted to focus their efforts on markets that are performing well today – particularly in Europe and North America. But that short-term focus can lead to long-term fragility. The current US tariffs are a perfect example of how quickly access to a key market can change. Without a diversified export strategy and flexible supply chain, businesses risk being caught off guard when the next disruption hits.

Over the longer term, the growing impact of climate change must also be considered. Chocolate prices recently hit a record high after bad weather hit harvests in cocoa-producing regions in West Africa, providing a glimpse of the future as high value crops become vulnerable to water shortages or floods.

According to UK ministers, the India trade deal could be worth £190 million for Scotland. Scottish food and drink, has everything it needs to thrive in India: quality, reputation, and ambition. To secure the next decade of growth, businesses must start planning now.

Amanda Collinson is international tax director at Johnston Carmichael​