Drawing on responses from 444 self-caterers across Scotland, the bi-annual survey offers real-world insight into a sector facing a worrying collapse in demand and sentiment.

While occupancy levels in spring and summer 2025 showed some resilience, the outlook for winter 2025–26 is markedly weaker. Just 7% of operators reported stronger forward bookings, while almost half (47%) said winter bookings were worse or much worse than last year.

Many described demand as having “dropped off a cliff” and the market as “dead”. Confidence has fallen sharply, with 43% pessimistic about the next 24 months.

The survey also highlights a series of structural and financial challenges pressing on self-catering businesses, all of which feed into dampened confidence:

• The rising cost of doing business was cited as a moderate to major challenge by 91% of respondents;
• Increasing regulatory pressures seen as an obstacle by 86%;
• Visitor affordability and competitiveness concerns affected 87% of operators; and
• Uncertainty around Scottish Government policy was viewed as a key concern by 79%.

The cumulative effect is squeezing profitability and leaving many businesses feeling stretched to the absolute limit, both operationally and personally. 76% report mental health and wellbeing impacts, with regulatory uncertainty cited as the leading cause of stress. Short-term let regulation remains one of the dominant issues, with 43% remaining in prolonged appeals or awaiting decisions regarding planning requirements.

Moreover, the sector remains heavily exposed to changes in Non-Domestic Rates (NDR) and the Small Business Bonus Scheme. That’s why last week, industry leaders wrote collectively to the Minister for Public Finance Ivan McKee, highlighting that the draft 2026 NDR revaluation posed a serious and immediate threat to the viability of thousands of businesses, with some facing eye-watering rises of 300%. At First Minister’s Question Time, John Swinney noted he was “concerned” at developments and that it was being “pursued” by ministers.

The ASSC is calling for immediate action to protect self-caterers from such disproportionate increases, as well as a more balanced regulatory approach overall that recognises the realities facing local operators.

Fiona Campbell MBE, CEO of the Association of Scotland’s Self-Caterers, said: “These figures are a powerful wake-up call. We are seeing confidence slip and forward bookings are alarmingly weak.

“Behind these numbers are real people working tirelessly to sustain Scotland’s vital tourism sector; and the strain is not only affecting balance sheets but also mental wellbeing.

Operators are reaching the absolute limit of what they can absorb. Without swift intervention, perfectly viable businesses will be lost, while the damage done to local economies will be long lasting.”