BoE rate cut ‘almost certain’ after GDP contraction

BoE rate cut 'almost certain' after GDP contraction

The UK economy unexpectedly shrank by 0.1% in October, marking a second consecutive month of contraction according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The figures defy economists’ forecasts of 0.1% growth and represent a fresh blow to the Chancellor following a stagnant August and a 0.1% decline in September.

The downturn was driven primarily by a 0.3% fall in the dominant services sector and a 0.6% drop in construction. While production output rose by 1.1% – aided by a partial recovery in car manufacturing following a major cyber attack on Jaguar Land Rover – it was insufficient to offset the wider economic weakness. Across the rolling three months to October, GDP fell by 0.1%.

Analysts suggest that activity was dampened by household and business caution ahead of Rachel Reeves’s November budget. Matt Swannell, chief economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club, noted that the UK has lost the pace seen in the first half of the year, warning that a quarter-on-quarter drop in output for Q4 is now possible.

Professor Joe Nellis of MHA described the recovery as “delicate” and lacking “meaningful forward momentum”, with the economy trapped between a downturn and sustainable expansion.

BoE rate cut 'almost certain' after GDP contraction

Kevin Brown – Savings expert at Scottish Friendly

The dismal figures have intensified calls for monetary easing. Kevin Brown, a savings expert at Scottish Friendly, stated it is now “almost certain” that the Bank of England will cut interest rates by 25 basis points later this month to support a fragile business environment and a weakening jobs market.

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