February 0.5% GDP growth masks gathering storm for UK economy
The UK economy grew by a stronger-than-expected 0.5% in February, according to official figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), significantly outpacing the 0.1% forecast by economists.
January’s figure was also revised upwards to 0.1% growth, adding to a picture of gathering momentum, though that momentum has since been overshadowed by the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East.
The ONS attributed February’s expansion to broad-based strength across services and manufacturing, both of which grew by 0.5%, as well as a 1% recovery in construction output. Over the three months to February, GDP grew by 0.5%, up from 0.3% in the preceding quarter, a measure regarded as a more reliable indicator than monthly data alone.
ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner highlighted growth across wholesaling, market research, hospitality and publishing, and noted that Jaguar Land Rover’s recovery from a damaging cyber-attack last autumn had also contributed to the improving picture.
Kevin Brown, savings expert at Scottish Friendly, said: “While any economic growth is welcome, February’s positive GDP reading is likely to prove short-lived unless there is a swift resolution to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
“The fallout has already hit the UK economy, with business confidence slumping and households contending with soaring mortgage rates.
“Add to the mix that the UK is a net energy importer, and therefore heavily exposed to price changes in global energy markets, and you have a toxic combination for a government desperate to drive up growth and living standards.
“The immediate prospects for the UK economy ultimately hang on what happens next. If tensions escalate again, energy prices and borrowing costs will likely soar, increasing the prospect of a recession. But even if a compromise is reached soon, it is still too early to say whether there has been any lasting economic scarring.
“The message to households is not to panic, but to focus on boosting financial resilience. That means cutting back where possible, building a financial buffer where feasible, and seeking out the best returns on savings to ensure they are working as hard as they can be.”

