UK GDP grows by 0.1% in November
UK real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.1% in the three months to November 2025, according to the latest figures published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The rise came after GDP showed no growth in the three months to October – revised up from a fall of 0.1% – and an unrevised growth of 0.1% in the three months to September 2025.
According to the figures, services output increased by 0.2%, after rising by 0.1% in the three months to October 2025. However, production output fell by 0.1%, largely because of a fall in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers in this period.
The fall in the three months to November follows a fall of 0.1% in the three months to October 2025.
Construction output fell by 1.1%, following a fall of 0.3% in the three months to October 2025; this continues a pattern of slowing growth in the three-monthly measure since May 2025 and is the lowest reading in the three-monthly growth since March 2023.
Kevin Brown, savings expert at Scottish Friendly, said: “After months of disappointment, November’s GDP figures offer a much needed and unexpected confidence boost.
“Given the headwinds facing businesses – from higher payroll taxes to growing geopolitical uncertainty – this recent data suggests that firms are starting to find their feet. Encouragingly, more up-to-date PMI data points to that momentum carrying into the end of the year, with manufacturing showing signs of a December rebound.
“That said, it’s important not to get carried away. While oil is well below where it was a year ago, the price has spiked in recent days following the unrest in Iran, one of the world’s largest oil producers. If the price continues to rise, it would lead to higher energy prices, which would hit manufacturers and derail their recent recover. This is something the Bank of England will be keeping a close eye on.
“As things stand, we still expect an interest rate cut by March, with another in the second half of the year, though global events could yet change the picture.
“In the meantime, savers shouldn’t sit still. If rate cuts are coming, the best deals won’t be around for long. And for those with a longer-term horizon, investing could still provide the potential to provide an effective way to try to stay ahead of inflation, which is still running significantly above the Bank of England’s 2% target.”
Luke Bartholomew, deputy chief economist, at Aberdeen, added: “After months of very sluggish activity, the November GDP report suggests there is still some life left in the UK economy. Of course, the monthly reports are very volatile, and the three-month measure is still very weak at just 0.1% growth.
“But the final quarter of last year now looks like it ended in expansion. Looking forward, it is still not clear where the drivers of a sustainable pick-up in growth through 2026 come from. So we continue to expect Bank Rate to fall to 3% this year as long as inflation plays ball.”
Matt Swannell, chief economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club, commented: “GDP rose 0.3% month-on-month in November. November’s expansion was largely due to two factors, including payback in the services sector following unusually soft readings across a range of sub-categories in October, and the continued recovery in manufacturing activity, supported by the phased restart of production in the automotive supply-chain after a major manufacturer was forced to halt production in September due to a cyber-attack. These forces more than offset a further fall in construction output.
“The Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimates that activity grew 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, and with data in hand for October and November, Q4 looks likely to have been similar. This probably overstates the loss of momentum in the second half of 2025. In each of the past four years, GDP growth has slowed sharply in Q3 before recovering in the final couple of months of Q4, suggesting the data may be suffering from residual seasonality. Still, soft GDP outturns in H2 2025 provide a weak launch pad for growth this year.
“GDP is expected to grow at sub-trend rates through most of 2026, with growth prospects for the private sector remaining limited. Households face a sharp slowdown in real income growth, which will weigh on improvements in consumer spending, while a combination of weak profitability and low business confidence is likely to restrain business investment. Prospects for UK exports are also quite gloomy, with trade policy uncertainty set to remain elevated and growth in key markets, such as the EU, likely to underwhelm. As a result, 2026 is expected to be another challenging year for the UK economy.”


