Inflation rise may force interest rate increase

Inflation rise may force interest rate increase

Fuel prices are on the rise.

The unexpected rise in inflation in September is likely to prompt the Bank of England to increase interest rates next month.

According to the Office for National Statistics, inflation jumped 0.4% to 3.5% - higher than expectations.

Economists had forecast the September figure to show an increase to 3.4%, and there are real concerns that figure will rise above 4% next year, more than double the bank’s 2% target rate.

Consequently, the bank will be under further pressure to hike interest rates at the Monetary Policy Committee’s next meeting.

The latest data also shows wages growing by 3.9% and, under the terms of the triple lock, this should be used to determine the increase in many benefits and the state pension which should rise  to £250.70 a week, up from the current £241.30 a week.

The figures will be a cautious reminder to Chancellor John Healey of the need to retain fiscal discipline in next week’s Budget.

Petrol prices have leapt above £1.70, while the cost of a litre of diesel has continued to rise, hitting a record high of more than £2 a litre this month.

Martin Sartorius, lead economist at the CBI, said: “Inflation ramped up in September, supported by a further rise in fuel pump prices. We expect that inflation will continue to accelerate in the months ahead due to higher energy costs and some firming in broader price pressures.

“September’s rise in inflation means that a rate hike will remain firmly on the table at the Monetary Policy Committee’s next meeting.

“While there have been limited signs of higher energy costs feeding into domestic price pressures so far, the Committee will likely want to guard against the risk of persistently higher headline inflation becoming embedded in future wage and price-setting behaviour.”

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