After weeks of speculation over the Autumn Budget, and an unprecedented early speech by the Chancellor, it is anyone’s guess as to what will be in her famous red box.

What we do know is that she is determined to promote economic growth – and the Budget represents a welcome opportunity to reset the dial.

In Scotland, a recent industry report focused on scale-ups shared exciting new ideas about growing some of our most promising businesses. Scotland, it said, has been prolific at producing great startups, but they are failing to grow past a certain point.

The analysis – compiled by the Scottish Scale-up Panel, a group headed by former Skyscanner CFO Shane Corstorphine – makes 15 detailed recommendations to boost growth and create more unicorns. Among its suggestions are a David Beckham-style tax break, modelled on Spanish regulations that enabled the footballer to benefit from lower income tax for non-residents when he played for Real Madrid.

For me, this spells out an important point that we have lost sight of amid the usual rumours that swirl around pre-Budget. Taxation doesn’t have to be a bad word; the fact is, it is a key lever to help businesses be more profitable and create jobs. And jobs and wealth are crucial to helping ailing communities to rise up.

Over the last few years, ever-changing tax rules have created a climate of confusion and uncertainty among business owners. Every few months, the goalposts seem to shift. From reforms to Business and Agricultural Property Relief (BPR/APR) to ongoing change to Business Asset Disposal Relief (BADR), entrepreneurs are second-guessing the rules that shape their futures.

As a result, we’re seeing a “watch-and-wait” culture take hold. Deals are being delayed. Projects are being shelved. People are hesitating to take the leap. Uncertainty and confusion about tax policies have an adverse impact on business and entrepreneurs who are geared up to take informed risks. Loss of confidence also leads to a loss of the entrepreneurial spark that powers growth.

The Corporate Tax Roadmap set out the long-term direction of UK corporation tax in a way designed to provide clarity, stability, and predictability for businesses, giving them greater confidence to invest.

A similar approach would be beneficial across the wider UK tax system to enhance stability and predictability, helping businesses and individuals plan investment and economic activity with greater confidence while improving trust in the consistency of fiscal policy.

In Scotland, we have the additional pressure of cross-border divergence on income tax, which has opened up a widening gap between Scotland and the rest of the UK.

As Professor Sir Anton Muscatelli, former Principal of the University of Glasgow, recently warned, Scotland risks putting off the very people and businesses it needs most. 

If skilled workers and entrepreneurs perceive Scotland as a high-tax destination, investment will follow them in going elsewhere. How will we encourage those incredibly valuable scale-ups we want to create if we don’t have the right people or funding to achieve growth?

Tax policy can and should support those who create jobs. What’s needed now is a system that’s simple, stable and credible. That doesn’t mean low taxes at all costs. It means fair, transparent rules that give businesses the confidence to act.

A Budget that gets behind business owners and entrepreneurs will unlock the economic activity we need to create jobs that put money in people’s pockets and raise the tax take that funds our public services. Now is the time to create the conditions for success.

Alex Docherty is a partner and head of private client tax at Johnston Carmichael