Producers are gearing up for a new drive into the market after last year’s UK-India trade deal promised to remove the tariffs that have held exports back.

Scottish salmon currently faces a 33% import duty, but that barrier is expected to be removed this year when the agreement comes into force.

This paves the way for exports that could rise to more than £30m a year by the end of the decade under high-growth projections, creating inward investment and well-paid jobs in Scotland.

New analysis by trade body Salmon Scotland suggests India could become one of Scotland’s top overseas markets for salmon by the mid-2030s, as demand for premium seafood rises in major cities such as Delhi and Mumbai.

The India opportunity forms part of a wider push to expand Scottish salmon exports in fast-growing markets across Asia and the Gulf, amid progress on a series of key free trade deals.

China shows how quickly demand can grow in Asia once a market opens up, with exports to the country close to £100m in 2025.

Salmon Scotland said India could follow a similar path as its premium food market expands, but that unlocking these opportunities will depend on regulation that supports sustainable growth and investment.

Scotland Office minister Kirsty McNeill said: “The UK-India trade deal taking effect later this year presents a major opportunity for Scottish salmon – opening up another key market for exporters while boosting the economy.

“These figures highlight the sector’s exciting growth potential as a result of the agreement secured by the UK government.

“With analysis showing India could become one of Scotland’s top overseas markets for salmon by the mid-2030s and eventually bring in £30m a year, this deal marks the beginning of a pivotal expansion into one of the world’s fastest-growing economies.

“The UK government’s support for Scotland’s iconic food and drink sector, including via Brand Scotland and the trade deals we are securing, is helping exporters of our finest Scottish produce reach every corner of the globe while driving economic growth at home.”

Tavish Scott, chief executive of Salmon Scotland, said: “Scottish salmon is already the UK’s top food export, with international sales worth £828m last year and strong demand across Asia.

“India now represents the next major opportunity. With tariffs set to be removed, exports to India could deliver up to £130m over the next decade, supporting jobs and investment in coastal communities across Scotland.

“We’ve seen in markets like China how quickly demand can build once trade barriers fall. India has the scale and economic momentum to follow a similar path.

“We are ready to move quickly once the deal is in force and position Scotland as a premium supplier in this fast-growing market.”

Most fish eaten in India is locally sourced, but demand for premium imported seafood is rising quickly in major cities.

Scottish salmon’s global reputation for quality and high production standards is expected to resonate strongly with these consumers.

Scottish salmon exports to India have so far remained modest, reaching around 70 tonnes a year worth roughly £0.5m up to 2022, indicating early demand and supply chains already in place.

Salmon Scotland says India could emerge as a meaningful new export destination even under cautious growth assumptions, with high-growth projections rising beyond 3,500 tonnes a year by the end of the decade.

Strong distribution links and reliable cold-chain logistics will be crucial to turning that opportunity into lasting exports.

The UK is also advancing trade talks with Gulf states including the UAE and Saudi Arabia, while a new agreement with South Korea has secured permanent tariff-free access for UK goods.

Scottish salmon exports to South Korea rose sharply before the pandemic, and improved market access could help exporters capitalise on demand across Asia.