UK economy grows 0.7% in Q1, but analysts warn of instability ahead

The United Kingdom’s economy grew by 0.7% in the first quarter of 2025, matching the initial estimate and marking the strongest expansion in a year.
This welcome news for the UK government, which follows a modest 0.1% gain in the final quarter of 2024, positions the UK with the highest growth rate among the G7 nations for the period.
The performance was broad-based, with the dominant services sector expanding by 0.7%. The strong GDP figure provides a degree of vindication for Chancellor Rachel Reeves amidst criticism of the government’s tax-and-spend policies.
However, concerns persist that this impressive growth may be a temporary surge. Analysts suggest the figures could have been inflated by companies accelerating spending to get ahead of US tariffs implemented in April. This has led to speculation that the economic momentum may taper off in the coming quarters.
Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell, described the confirmation of the UK’s leading growth rate as “almost redundant” given the current climate of uncertainty. “A mix of tariff woes and tax hikes have created a period of such uncertainty and instability that many businesses have simply pressed pause on their future plans,” she added.
Lingering questions over steel and aluminium exports, alongside the potential fallout from future US trade deals, continue to cast a shadow over British manufacturing. Ms Hewson concluded that “the early growth spurt looks set to be an anomaly rather than the sustained expansion the government needs”.
Meanwhile, the Bank of England remains cautious. While welcoming the positive GDP data, the bank held the cash rate at 4.25% last week, citing stubbornly high inflation. Policymakers have indicated that underlying growth remains “weak”, suggesting a desire to cut rates to stimulate the economy is being held back until there are clearer signs of easing inflation.