Scottish retail sales slump in March as Middle East fears dampen consumer confidence

Scottish retail sales slump in March as Middle East fears dampen consumer confidence

Retail sales in Scotland fell sharply in March as anxious consumers reined in spending amid growing concerns over the Middle East crisis and the threat of rising energy prices and inflation.

Total sales decreased by 1.3% compared with March 2025, and after adjusting for inflation the year-on-year decline deepened to 2.5%, according to the SRC-KPMG Scottish Retail Sales Monitor, which covered the five weeks to 4 April.

The results came in below both the three-month average increase of 0.5% and the 12-month average increase of 0.9%.

Non-food sales bore the brunt of the downturn, falling 2.8% on an annual basis and dropping 3.0% once online transactions were stripped out. Food sales offered a modest counterpoint, edging 0.6% higher, though this too fell short of the three-month average.

The figures dealt a further blow to retailers who had hoped an early Easter would provide a timely boost to trade. “Despite decent footfall, sales fell across most categories as concerns about energy prices and possible inflation deterred spending,” said Ewan MacDonald-Russell, deputy head of the Scottish Retail Consortium.

Computing and toy sales held up, though fashion and footwear continued to struggle, heaping further pressure on already strained high streets.

Linda Ellett, UK head of consumer, retail & leisure at KPMG, said: “Retail sales disappointed for a second month in a row in Scotland, with consumer spending caution further heightened by the current and potential impact of the Middle East conflict.

“But, despite this challenging trading landscape, monthly examples of category sales growth remain. While margins remain under pressure on a number of fronts, retailers need to continue to focus on their month-to-month pricing and promotions, their supply chain resilience and delivering the technological transformation needed to set the foundations for growth.”

With Scottish parliamentary elections on the horizon, Mr MacDonald-Russell struck a political note, calling on all parties to acknowledge the scale of the costs crisis bearing down on households and businesses alike. “It’s vital the next devolved government doesn’t compound the costs crunch they face,” he said.

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