This follows revised growth of 0.2% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2025.

In output terms, all three sectors contributed to growth in the latest quarter, with the largest contribution coming from the services sector, which grew by 0.8%. GDP is estimated to have increased by an unrevised 1.4% annually in 2025, following revised growth of 1.0% in 2024 (previously 1.1%). Real GDP per head is estimated to have increased by 0.6% in Quarter 1 2026 and is up 0.9% compared with the same quarter a year ago.

Emeritus Professor Joe Nellis, economic adviser at the accountancy and advisory firm MHA, commented on the figures: “While this outcome surpasses gloomy early-year predictions and most forecasts, it is now dangerously clear that the economy is only skirting the edge of stagnation. Crucial warning signs are mounting and demand urgent attention.

“Growth is alarmingly weak and fragile. The narrow lifeline from the services sector, particularly professional and business services, cannot compensate for stagnation elsewhere. Manufacturing is subdued, investment is stalling, and consumers are straining under rising mortgage and living costs.

“Crucially, these are the first official GDP figures to register the initial impact of the escalating Middle East crisis - a threat that could quickly intensify and destabilise the outlook for much of 2026.”

He added that surging energy costs, damaged supply chains and worsening geopolitical turmoil are inflating business costs and affecting confidence. He continued: “For the highly exposed UK, instability poses a direct and serious threat. If upheaval continues, businesses will see margins eroded just as demand weakens.

“This sets the stage for a perilous economic turn in the second half of the year: slower growth, renewed inflation, and a sharp decline in business confidence are all imminent dangers.

“The impact on public finances is potentially severe. Quarterly growth of 0.6% offers no long term relief for the Treasury. Tax receipts are set to lag behind mounting spending on inflation, debt, and welfare, forcing the Chancellor to confront a dangerously narrow fiscal path.”

He concluded: “The UK economy has displayed resilience, but time is running out. Mistaking resilience for strength would be a costly error. With geopolitical shocks, inflation, and monetary pressures converging rapidly, the UK faces a far more daunting challenge than the GDP headline suggests. Immediate, decisive action is now imperative.

“Households set to suffer from energy cost rises will need support to prevent a further decline in demand. Policy must support businesses: reducing costs and encouraging investment and innovation. An agreement with the EU that enables closer trading ties is not a silver bullet - but it would be a start.”

Kevin Brown, savings expert at financial mutual Scottish Friendly, said: “Given the headwinds facing the UK economy, it’s a surprise that it is managing to eke out any growth at all. The past two months have been tumultuous due to tensions in the Middle East and, as a highly open economy, the UK is particularly exposed to the fallout.

“When you add domestic political instability into the mix, it creates a toxic combination that drags on growth and discourages investment in the UK. The fact the economy still grew by 0.3% in March suggests that, despite everything, the UK economy remains resilient – even if growth is still falling short of the levels many would like to see.

“While tensions in the Middle East appear to have eased recently, recent history suggests households should continue to expect the unexpected. The best course of action is to make sure your finances are resilient enough to withstand a prolonged period of uncertainty. That means building a financial buffer and ensuring your money is working as hard as possible, whether that’s shopping around for a better savings deal or investing some spare cash for the potential of higher long-term returns.”

Luke Bartholomew, deputy chief economist at Aberdeen Investments, added: “While GDP growth was actually pretty solid over Q1, it is hard to see this mattering very much to markets given how much things have moved on since then in both international and domestic politics. 

“Higher energy prices will weigh on growth, stunting any recovery that might otherwise have been occurring. And ongoing political uncertainty is likely to weigh on investment given the possibility of a significant change in fiscal policy. So the risk of a recession later this year is elevated, but for now the key driver of the gilt market is likely to be political developments rather than economic data.”